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Archive for March, 2005

Open-Source Platform for Prediction Markets in Development

Thursday, March 31st, 2005

Chris Hibbert introduces himself and the Zocalo project (link). He writes:

The proposal has now been issued as CN-TR-05-02: Zocalo: An Open-Source Platform for Deploying Prediction Markets. The presentation I gave at the workshop is up on the DIMACS web site. And my job is to make it all happen…

The goal of the project is the development of an open source toolkit
for creating Prediction Markets and of a community of interestd users…

Trials of prediction markets
are demonstrating their usefulness, but people who want to make use of
them are handicapped by not having access to tools that make them
straightforward to deploy. Zocalo is intended to fix that problem.

Our initial users will be experimental economists…Later applications will include trials in
industrial settings and eventually public markets for prizes or real
money…

I'd appreciate
contacts from economists who would like help setting up experimental
prediction markets, or others who are interested in exploring
deployment of prediction markets to answer important questions within
your organization.

Kathleen meets the President of Taiwan

Wednesday, March 30th, 2005

During my trip to Taipei I had the good fortune to meet Taiwan's
President Chen Shui-ban. Here is a photo that was taken of our group of
speakers with President Chen in his beautiful private reception room.

Taiwan Group Photo

Welcome to the Negotiating Tip of the Week

Monday, March 28th, 2005

Welcome to our first podcast for e-learning: Negotiating Tip of the
Week. This podcast has been created by Josh Weiss, Associate Director
of Harvard’s Program on Negotiation and a wonderful teacher of
negotiation and conflict resolution. For the past two years, we have
had the good fortune to work with Josh on a custom e-learning program
for a local client. Now we hope to extend Josh’s wisdom and knowledge
on this topic by offering subscribers a regular weekly podcast on
negotiation tactics and strategy.


MP3 File

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

Blogging in China

Friday, March 25th, 2005

Rebecca McKinnon interviews Isaac Mao about blogging in China. Here are some excerpts:

Isaacmao

Up until now bulletin boards have remained the number-one way that Chinese communicate on the internet. Will people now switch to blogs? Or to something else?

Isaac: Not only BBS, but all internet sites are tightened by government in these days. Even personal website with independant domain name should be declared before June (see Zheng’s post)

Whether it’s easy to execute and maintain, the action will affect many of internet sites hosted in China. Although some guys like Maomy are seeking alternative solution, such as blog, [switching] from BBS. They don’t know how long they can live in this form. Zheng even predicts that there will be a new round of “Silence” in China cyberspace.

Rebecca: You mentioned in your latest post that “centralized blog hosting services” can’t work in China either, and that people are “moving to more distributed blogging solutions.” Can you explain what you mean by that and give some examples of how centralized blog hosting services aren’t working, and what the distributed blogging solutions are, and how they work?

Isaac: [Chinese blog hosting services like] Blogbus.com/blogcn.com/blogchina.com are a centralized hosting service, but student bloggers have to move to these sites with the first reaction when their campus blog community blocked with BBS.

The first reaction of student bloggers in Tsing Hua once their blog community was blocked along with BSS is to move to other blog hosting service providers. The user, Maomy, moved from TsingHua University blog community to blogbus days ago. Just commented on my post at CNBlog, “Seems I should find a safer solution building my own blog site….”. It shows their concerns on centralized blog hosting service too. …It’s still not the ultimate safe solution I want to tell people, neither Maomy and other guys want. Just a temp solution.

The safer and distributed solution means an independent space with an independent domain name. (e.g., rconversation.com, isaacmao.com, etc.), and better they are not attached to one service provider.

As I know, the centralized bloghosting sites will soon add “Shui Mu Qinghua” [The name of the Tsinghua University BBS] as a blocked keyword in their self-policed system. By searching Grassland(an RSS search engine developed by cnblog.org team), some centralized blog sites has removed their user’s posts manually in last days, some links broken already.

Rebecca: So isn’t Blogbus [Isaac’s blog hosting service] also subject to government requirements that it must block keywords and filter content?

Isaac: In China, there are already serveral thousands of independant blogs linked with independant domain name the blogger like. However, it is only about 1-2% of the total blogosphere size. Most of the blogs still hosted in centralized blog service providers. That’s why some said there are only serval ‘blogs’ in China. What we are trying to do is to help people set up their own blog site with an affordable price. Actually, many bloggers wants to have such site if he/she blogs over one year. To those centralized blog hosting services, they have to choose “self-policing” between “free speech” and “self-policing”, no exception. But in some ways, they are also good to help people to learn what’s blog initially.

Although setting up an independant blog site is not easy to common users, I found more and more users seek helps from peers to build their own blog site now, either hosted in China or overseas. I’m talking with some local entrepreneurs here on how to help those bloggers to set up independant blog site without pain. Although ISPs are also controlled by government for sure, the mass distributed content is more difficult to be blocked once a time like SMTH BBS.

BC presentation 3/28/05

Friday, March 25th, 2005

Presentation to Mary Cronin's ecommerce class at Boston College.

Forrester on Blogs: New Hires get a blog on Day 1

Wednesday, March 23rd, 2005

Here is an excerpt from a Forrester report on blogs:

“Forrester believes that blogging will grow in importance… Blogs will become marketing vehicles…Blogs build strong, efficient teams. Forrester envisions the day when new employees on their first day will be handed a sheet of paper with their phone number, email address – and a URL for their blog.” Charlene Li, Blogging: Bubble or Big Deal?, Forrester Research, Inc., November, 2004.

Kgblog

Of course at the Ottergroup, we already do give our new hires (and consultants) blogs as soon as they start working with us.

Winning the Race for Knowledge Worker Productivity

Monday, March 21st, 2005

Presented to the International Conference on the National
Communications Commission sponsored by Kainan University in Taiwan,
March 2005 (submitted by Kathleen Gilroy)

PowerPoint Presentation

Financial Times: MERRILL LYNCH EXECUTIVE EDUCATION PROGRAM

Monday, March 21st, 2005

FT REPORT - BUSINESS EDUCATION
 Extra effort can lead to the top - CASE STUDY: MERRILL LYNCH EXECUTIVE EDUCATION PROGRAMME.
By DELLA BRADSHAW
740 words; 21 March 2005 ; Financial Times ; Surveys EDB1 ; Page 5 ; English
(c) 2005 The Financial Times Limited. All rights reserved.

You might think aspiring managers at  Merrill Lynch have enough to
do without taking on a 14-week executive education programme in
addition to their existing work load.

 But at the global investment bank, high-potential 30-year-olds
are queuing up to join a distance learning programme designed for them
by MIT's Sloan school of management.

 They study at weekends, in the evening and even on international
flights to cram in the estimated 80 hours of work needed to complete
the programme.

 The prize? The opportunity to present their ideas to the top dogs in the firm and launch their careers.
 The course is based on research by Andrew Lo, Sloan professor and
director of the MIT laboratory for financial engineering. It charts how
investors make decisions about their investments rather than the
nitty-gritty of how the investments themselves perform.

 The programme started in 2001 with 30 students a year, but for
the past couple of years 50 students have enrolled on the course.

 Merrill’s commitment to the course was amply demonstrated by its
decision to continue running it in the spring of 2002, when operating
from temporary quarters in New Jersey following the terrorist attacks
in New York the previous September, says Kathleen Goldreich, a director
in the bank's learning and development team for global markets and
investment banking.

 Now in its fifth year, the programme is one of the most
successful implementations of e-learning for short executive courses.
However, it works because it uses basic technology to which all
participants have access, rather than the latest whizzy gadgets.

 In particular, the core of the course is a weekly lecture by Prof
Lo, of between 60 and 90 minutes. Each participant receives the filmed
lecture on CD, so they can watch it on their laptops if they are on a
train or aircraft. Participants then use the internet to discuss the
issues raised.

 The 50 participants also use e-mail and phone calls to carry out
their projects. Each participant, from as far afield as New York and
Tokyo, is put into a team of between five and six and each group is
charged with a developing a product new to the Merrill Lynch portfolio.
Between them they have to profile potential customers, design the
product and carry out the cost-benefit analysis.

 The team has to present the product to senior Merrill staff in the closing session of the programme.

For the first few years the programme produced a number of interesting
projects with significant potential, but there was little
follow-through once the courses were complete, says Ms Goldreich. So in
2003 Sloan professor Deborah Ancona, a specialist in how managers work
in teams, was brought in.

 On the first day, when all the participants congregate in New
York, Prof Ancona asks them to talk about what makes an effective team.
They mainly discuss internal dynamics, she says, but this is only half
the story. Prof Ancona's work is built around the idea of communicating
outside the group with customers and managers.

 The result is a better product. “It is a quintessential part of
what makes a product great because the team can mould it to the
strategy of the firm.”

 Of the nine products proposed by the global teams in 2004, four have been implemented.

The programme belies the myth that distance learning is a cheaper way
of conducting corporate learning. The professors set aside time to
check the status of the group projects, as well as attending to the
more traditional elements of the programme.

 ”It is very labour-intensive,” says Toby Woll, director of
blended learning at the Sloan school. “The costs are equivalent to
those for a residential course.”

 She points out that because the participants complete the
programme in addition to their normal job - not instead of it - there
are no opportunity costs.

 Prof Ancona also believes the participants have learnt
team-working skills that they can use again and again, to the advantage
of the company and of themselves.

 Participants are obviously happy too. Of those who participated
in 2004, 93 per cent said they would recommend it to a colleague.

 Perhaps more significantly, despite the gruelling schedule, 79
per cent said they would be prepared to take a similar programme.

Blogging in China: 650,000 and counting

Wednesday, March 16th, 2005

Cnblog
In doing the research for my presentation in Taiwan, I was fortunate enough to interview a couple of experts on blogging in China, including Isaac Mao, the “godfather” of Chinese blogging and Andy Yin, the CEO of a Chinese blogging and RSS company, who are referenced below. Here is what I uncovered:
The blogging revolution is also sweeping China. Xiao Qiang reported in New Scientist that blogs were first discovered in China in 2002 when Isaac Mao, an Intel scientist in Shanghai, was surfing the US Web site blogger.com, and found Zheng Yunsheng, a teacher at a technical school in Fujian province:

He left a message on Zheng’s blog, and two weeks later Mao and Zheng started CNBlog.org, China’s first online discussion forum about blogging technology and culture. They soon gathered a small but devoted group of participants, many of whom went on to develop the technology that makes blogging possible for China’s half-a-million bloggers.


Technology writer Fang Xingdong in Beijing, author of BlogChina.com, which covers the development of China’s IT industry, coined the Chinese term for blogger:
bo ke, which loosely translates to “abundant traveler” in English. China’s first bloggers used Google’s Blogger and hosted their blogs on Blogspot, a U.S.-based blog hosting service. In January 2003, the Chinese government blocked all access to blogspot and essentially shut down the nascent Chinese blogging revolution. Not to be deterred, Chinese bloggers jumped onto three new start-ups hosted behind China’s great firewall, “which protects the nine gateways connecting China to the global internet. Its main function is to prevent surfers in China from accessing ‘undesirable’ web content.”

Blogging in China has grown rapidly and today there are over 45 large blog hosting services in China, including Isaac Mao’s CNblog.org. According to New Scientist, China’s over 500,000 bloggers are heavily censored:

Whether in China or elsewhere, such sites are usually moderated by editors who keep them relevant and readable. In China, the moderators also keep their sites’ content acceptable to the censor, so when users try to post a “forbidden” comment they receive a warning message such as “your post contains sensitive and indecent contents”. Posts on politically sensitive topics, such as Falun Gong, human rights, democracy, and Taiwan independence, are routinely filtered by this means. A list recently obtained by the China Internet Project in Berkeley found that over 1000 words, including “dictatorship”, “truth”, and “riot police” are automatically banned in China’s online forums.


RSS, as a platform for disseminating information, is just finding its first applications in China and Taiwan. Isaac Mao cites local news agencies in China, such as XinHua, using RSS feeds.
In Taiwan, e-commerce Web sites are starting to use RSS for disseminating information about things like house rentals. Andy Yin, CEO of Kantianxia told me that his company “recently finished an RSS project for one of the major media companies in China, to help them build a system to disseminate fee-based info to their subscribers via RSS.” Given the advantages of RSS for business and government in the US, it is likely that organizations in both China and Taiwan will rapidly discover and implement RSS applications.
Twohouses

Winning the Race for Knowledge Worker Productivity

Wednesday, March 16th, 2005

Winning the Race for Knowledge Worker Productivity:
Presented to the International Conference on the National
Communications Commission sponsored by Kainan University in Taiwan,
March 2005 (submitted by Kathleen Gilroy)


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